Duke vs. Michigan State odds, prediction, betting trends for 2022 March Madness second round game

No. 2 Duke meets No. 7 Michigan State in the second round of the 2022 men’s basketball tournament Sunday.

The game is at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, SC

Duke (29-6) is trying to extend the farewell tour for legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski to the Sweet 16. The Blue Devils beat No. 15 Cal-State Fullerton 78-61 in the first round Friday. Freshman Paolo Banchero is a double-double machine that leads a talented Duke roster.

Michigan State (23-12) advanced to the second round with a 74-73 victory against No. 10 Davidson on Friday. Longtime coach Tom Izzo is trying to get the Spartans back to the Sweet 16. Michigan State is 2-4 all time in tournament games against Duke.

MORE: Coach K vs. Tom Izzo by the numbers

Here’s everything to know about betting on Duke vs. Michigan State in the 2022 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for the second-round game.

Duke vs. Michigan State odds

  • Spread: Duke -6.5
  • Over / under: 144.5
  • Moneyline: Duke -275, Michigan State +215

Three betting trends to watch

– Duke is 0-5 ATS in its last five games. The Blue Devils are 7-3 S / U and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.

—The Spartans are 5-8 S / U and 7-6 ATS as an underdog this season. Michigan State is 2-5 S / U and 3-4 ATS as an underdog of five points or more.

– Duke is 10-3 S / U and 8-5 ATS when favored by 10 points or less this season.

Duke key players

Duke had five players hit double-figures in the first-round victory against Cal State-Fullerton. Banchero, a 6-10, 250-pound forward, hit near his season averages with 17 points and 10 rebounds. Mark Williams, a 7-foot center, added five blocks and needs one more to hit 100 for the season. AJ Griffin and Wendell Moore are capable scorers from the perimeter, and Jeremy Roach and Trevor Keels each average more than three assists per game. Moore is the only upperclassmen among that group.

DECOURCY: Duke doesn’t slip up in NCAA tourney debut

Michigan State key players

Senior forward Gabe Brown leads the Spartans with 11.4 points per game. Freshman Max Christie averages 9.5 points, and forwards Malik Hall and Marcus Bingham are Michigan State’s leading rebounders. Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker did not start in the first-round matchup against Davidson after suffering an ankle injury in the Big Ten tournament, but he knocked down the two game-clinching free throws against Davidson. Role players AJ Hoggard, Joey Hauser and Julius Marble stepped up and combined for 46 points against the Wildcats.

Best individual matchup: Paulo Banchero vs. Gabe Brown

How much will these two star players guard each other? That’s worth watching. Hauser also might see time on the Duke star. This isn’t Michigan State’s best defensive team, but they will get physical with Banchero and try to push him outside. He is a 30.6% three-point shooter. On the other end, Brown will need to be more assertive. Michigan State is 7-2 when he scores 15 points or more.

Duke vs. Michigan State stat to know

In the two tournament losses to Michigan State, Duke committed 39 turnovers. The Spartans were +17 in those two games, and that’s a statistic both Izzo and Krzyzewski are going to harp on in the lead-up to the game. Everything, including the slippery floor conditions at Bon Secours Wellness Arena, will be addressed. The Spartans’ best bet to win is to fluster a young Duke team on the defensive end.

Get to know … AJ Hoggard Michigan State

Izzo’s tournament runs have alway been dictated by the point guard, and Hoggard (6-3, 220) stepped up in Walker’s place against the Wildcats. He scored 14 points against Davidson, and his three best scoring games with 15 or more points this season were against Kansas, Purdue and Illinois. If Walker still is limited against Duke, then this is Hoggard’s chance to step into Michigan State lore.

Duke vs. Michigan State prediction

The Blue Devils are going to have to earn it on both ends. Michigan State will be patient on the offensive end, but the Spartans will need to be on from 3-point range and try to get Williams in foul trouble early. The 7-foot center dealt with that in losses to Ohio State, Virginia and Virginia Tech this season. Michigan State might lead at halftime, but Banchero will lead a second-half surge. The Blue Devils make their free throws down the stretch in another classic, and Coach K takes the show to the Sweet 16.

Final score: Duke 75, Michigan State 67

COACH K’S FINAL SEASON

Chapter 1: Ending the era

Chapter 2: Inside the greatest game

Chapter 3: Getting recruited by the legend

Chapter 4: Redeeming USA Basketball

Chapter 5: Coaching against K

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